Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Hariri tribunal

"The indictment of four men linked to Hezbollah in the 2005 assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri made public by the Special Tribunal on Lebanon Aug. 17 is questionable not because it is based on "circumstantial evidence", but because that evidence is based on a flawed premise.  The evidence depends on a convoluted theory involving what the indictment calls "co-location" of personal mobile phones associated with five distinct networks said to be somehow connected with the plot to murder Hariri.  The indictment, originally filed Jun. 10, says that, if there are "many instances" in which a phone is "active at the same location, on the same date, and within the same time frame as other phones", but the phones do not contact each other, then it is "reasonable to conclude from these instances that one person is using multiple phones together".  Based on that assumption the indictment asserts that "a person can ultimately be identified by co-location to be the user of a network phone."  On that reasoning, one of the four accused, Salim Jamil Ayyash, is said to have participated in a "red" network of phones that was activated on Jan. 5, 2005, only contacted each other, and ceased operations two minutes before the blast that killed Hariri. The "red" network is presumed to have been used by those who carried out surveillance as well as prepared the logistics for the bombing.  But Ayyash is also linked by "co-location" to a "green" network that had been initiated in October 2004 and ceased to operate one hour before the attack, and a "blue" network that was active between September 2004 and September 2005. The only basis for linking either of those two sets of mobile phones to the assassination appears to be the claim of frequent "co-location" of Ayyash's personal cell phone with one of the phones in those networks and one red phone." (thanks Sam)